Thursday, November 6, 2014

Q8: What is Inflation? Mention the current inflationary position and its impact on business sector.

Ans: Inflation is a persistent increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. In other words, the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.
Types of Inflation:

1.      Types of Inflation on Coverage: Types of inflation on the basis of coverage and scope point of view:-
a.       Comprehensive Inflation: When the prices of all commodities rise throughout the economy it is known as Comprehensive Inflation. Another name for comprehensive inflation is Economy Wide Inflation.
b.      Sporadic Inflation: When prices of only few commodities in few regions (areas) rise, it is known as Sporadic Inflation. It is sectional in nature. For example, rise in food prices due to bad monsoon (winds bringing seasonal rains in India).

 

2. Types of Inflation on Time of Occurrence: Types of inflation on the basis of time (period) of occurrence:-
a. War-Time Inflation : Inflation that takes place during the period of a war-like situation is known as War-Time inflation. During a war, scare productive resources are all diverted and prioritized to produce military goods and equipments. This overall result in very limited supply or extreme shortage (low availability) of resources (raw materials) to produce essential commodities. Production and supply of basic goods slow down and can no longer meet the soaring demand from people. Consequently, prices of essential goods keep on rising in the market resulting in War-Time Inflation.
b. Post-War Inflation: Inflation that takes place soon after a war is known as Post-War Inflation. After the war, government controls are relaxed, resulting in a faster hike in prices than what experienced during the war.
c. Peace-Time Inflation: When prices rise during a normal period of peace, it is known as Peace-Time Inflation. It is due to huge government expenditure or spending on capital projects of a long gestation (development) period.
3. Types of Inflation on Government Reaction: Types of inflation on basis of Government's reaction or its degree of control:-
a. Open Inflation: When government does not attempt to restrict inflation, it is known as Open Inflation. In a free market economy, where prices are allowed to take its own course, open inflation occurs.
b. Suppressed Inflation: When government prevents price rise through price controls, rationing, etc., it is known as Suppressed Inflation. It is also referred as Repressed Inflation. However, when government controls are removed, Suppressed inflation becomes Open Inflation. Suppressed Inflation leads to corruption, black marketing, artificial scarcity, etc.
4. Types of Inflation on Rising Prices: Types of inflation on the basis of rising prices or rate of inflation:-
a. Creeping Inflation: When prices are gently rising, it is referred as Creeping Inflation. It is the mildest form of inflation and also known as a Mild Inflation or Low Inflation. According to R.P. Kent, when prices rise by not more than (up to) 3% per annum (year), it is called Creeping Inflation.
b. Chronic Inflation: If creeping inflation persist (continues to increase) for a longer period of time then it is often called as Chronic or Secular Inflation. Chronic Creeping Inflation can be either Continuous (which remains consistent without any downward movement) or Intermittent (which occurs at regular intervals). It is called chronic because if an inflation rate continues to grow for a longer period without any downturn, then it possibly leads to Hyperinflation.
c. Walking Inflation: When the rate of rising prices is more than the Creeping Inflation, it is known as Walking Inflation. When prices rise by more than 3% but less than 10% per annum (i.e. between 3% and 10% per annum), it is called as Walking Inflation. According to some economists, walking inflation must be taken seriously as it gives a cautionary signal for the occurrence of running inflation. Furthermore, if walking inflation is not checked in due time it can eventually result in Galloping inflation.
d. Moderate Inflation: Prof. Samuelson clubbed together concept of Creeping and Walking inflation into Moderate Inflation. When prices rise by less than 10% per annum (single digit inflation rate), it is known as Moderate Inflation. According to Prof. Samuelson, it is a stable inflation and not a serious economic problem.
e. Running Inflation: A rapid acceleration in the rate of rising prices is referred as Running Inflation. When prices rise by more than 10% per annum, running inflation occurs. Though economists have not suggested a fixed range for measuring running inflation, we may consider price rise between 10% to 20% per annum (double digit inflation rate) as a running inflation.
f. Galloping Inflation: According to Prof. Samuelson, if prices rise by double or triple digit inflation rates like 30% or 400% or 999% per annum, then the situation can be termed as Galloping Inflation. When prices rise by more than 20% but less than 1000% per annum (i.e. between 20% to 1000% per annum), galloping inflation occurs. It is also referred as Jumping inflation. India has been witnessing galloping inflation since the second five year plan period.
g. Hyper inflation: Hyperinflation refers to a situation where the prices rise at an alarming high rate. The prices rise so fast that it becomes very difficult to measure its magnitude. However, in quantitative terms, when prices rise above 1000% per annum (quadruple or four digit inflation rate), it is termed as Hyperinflation. During a worst case scenario of hyperinflation, value of national currency (money) of an affected country reduces almost to zero. Paper money becomes worthless and people start trading either in gold and silver or sometimes even use the old barter system of commerce. Two worst examples of hyperinflation recorded in world history are of those experienced by Hungary in year 1946 and Zimbabwe during 2004-2009 under Robert Mugabe's regime.
5. Types of Inflation on Causes: Types of inflation on the basis of different causes:-
a. Deficit Inflation: Deficit inflation takes place due to deficit financing.
b. Credit Inflation: Credit inflation takes place due to excessive bank credit or money supply in the economy.
c. Scarcity Inflation: Scarcity inflation occurs due to hoarding. Hoarding is an excess accumulation of basic commodities by unscrupulous traders and black marketers. It is practiced to create an artificial shortage of essential goods like food grains, kerosene, etc. with an intension to sell them only at higher prices to make huge profits during scarcity inflation. Though hoarding is an unfair trade practice and a punishable criminal offence still some crooked merchants often get themselves engaged in it.
d. Profit Inflation: When entrepreneurs are interested in boosting their profit margins, prices rise.
e. Pricing Power Inflation: It is often referred as Administered Price inflation. It occurs when industries and business houses increase the price of their goods and services with an objective to boost their profit margins. It does not occur during a financial crisis and economic depression, and is not seen when there is a downturn in the economy. As Oligopolies have the ability to set prices of their goods and services it is also called as Oligopolistic Inflation.
f. Tax Inflation: Due to rise in indirect taxes, sellers charge high price to the consumers.
g. Wage Inflation: If the rise in wages in not accompanied by a rise in output, prices rise.

Current Inflationary Position: Wholesale Price Index (WPI) which remained high through 2011 due to increasing  global commodity prices and high crude prices has started showing signs of  moderation and it is expected to touch 6.5 to 7 percent by March 2012. It may further moderate during 2012-13 due to tightening of monetary policy and other measures put in place by the Government. Taking stock of the price situation, Economic survey 2011-12 has observed that in the current financial year the gap between WPI and CPI inflation has significantly narrowed due to drastic fall in food inflation. The survey comments that the objective of monetary policy during 2011-12 has been to rein in inflation and contain inflationary expectations.
However, the RBI has addressed liquidity concerns via the use of its standard tools. The monetary market has, in general, remained orderly during 2011-12 with the rates in collateralized segments moving in tendem with the call rate, but generally remaining below it. The Indian Economy, which is one of the largest emerging markets globally, is struggling with one of its quickest inflations. The rate of increase in the prices of non-food manufactured goods is a proper indicator of core inflation.
Month
Inflation Rate
July 2011
8.43%
August 2011
8.99%
September 2011
10.06%
October 2011
9.39%
November 2011
9.34%
December 2011
6.49%
January 2012
5.32%
February 2012
7.57%
March 2012
8.65%
April 2012
10.22%
May 2012
10.16%
June 2012
10.05%

Impact of Inflation on Business Sector:
In simple language, inflation means rising prices and it shows the increase in cost of living. In economics, inflation is explained as rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. With the rise in price levels a unit of currency will buy fewer goods and services. As a result, the purchasing power of money will be reduced with inflation. In other words the real value of money will be lost day by day along with inflation. Inflation is measured by the Rate of Inflation or Inflation Rate which is the percentage change in a general price index calculated as an annualized figure.
A low inflation rate is beneficial to a country and zero or negative inflation is considered as bad. Also, a high inflation is harmful to an economy and it affects an economy in many ways.
·         High inflation distorts consumer behavior: Because of the fear of price increases, people tend to purchase their requirements in advance as much as possible. This can destabilize markets creating unnecessary shortages.
·         High inflation redistributes the income of people: The fixed income earners and those lacking bargaining power will become relatively worse off as their purchasing power falls.
·         Trade unions may demand for higher wages at times of high inflation: If the claims are accepted by the employers, it may give rise to a wage-price spiral which may aggravate the inflation problem.
·         Difficulty in Predicting Future: During a high inflation period, wide fluctuations in the inflation rate make it difficult for business organizations to predict the future and accurately calculate prices and returns from investments. Therefore, it can undermine business confidence.

·         Create Trade Deficit: When inflation in a country is more than that in a competitive country, the exports from former country will be less attractive compared to the other country. This means there will be fewer sales for that country’s goods both at home and abroad and that will create a larger trade deficit. At the same time, high inflation in a country weakens its competitive position in the international market.

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